Thursday, January 8, 2015

North Caucasus Again on the Brink of Explosion, Experts Say


Paul Goble

 

            Staunton, January 8 – The situation in the North Caucasus which had stabilized in recent months is again on the brink of an explosion as a result of the return of militants from Syria who are now loyal to ISIL, massive human rights violations by the authorities, and widely-criticized court decisions, according to five regional specialists surveyed by Kavkaz Uzel.

 

            During the first 11 months of 2014, the last period for which data are available, there were no fewer than 26 terrorist actions and no fewer than 137 clashes between the authorities and the armed underground. These actions claimed 290 dead and 140 wounded, according to the news service (ingushetia.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/255197/).

 

            These figures, however horrific they may appear, represent a significant decline in the intensity of conflict there, according to Aleksandr Cherkasov of the Memorial Human Rights Center. “The activity of the underground in the region is falling. In 2013, it was lower than in 2012, and in 2014, it was lower than in 2013.” 

 

            At least in part, he continued, this was connected with the harsh measures the authorities in Daghestan and Chechnya adopted and with the use of soft force in Ingushetia, which by the way, Cherkasov indicated, “has become the most peaceful region in the North Caucasus.” The question is whether this trend can last.

 

            In recent months, he said, “hundreds of militants” left the North Caucasus to fight in Syria,” partially because “it was more peaceful for them” in that Middle Eastern country than in their homelands. But “this means that the improvement of the situation [in the North Caucasus] is only temporary,” especially as those returning have more military experience and are committed to the Islamic State.

 

            This shift in loyalty, he continued, has potentially serious consequences because it is likely to mean that militants in the North Caucasus will now operate beyond the borders of their own republics, be more willing to kill civilians, and become ever less willing to negotiate directly or indirectly with the authorities.

 

Varvara Pakhomenko of the International Crisis Group said that the decline in militant activity in 2014 was the result of “the active work of the [Russian] force structures on the eve of the Olympiad in Sochi and after it,” operations which involved extremely “harsh measures” leading to the deaths, arrests, or departure from the area of many militants.


The success this campaign had, she said, made the use of force look “effective.” But it is “not capable of bringing a long-lasting peace since it leads to the antagonism of the population and the powers and to the growth of radicalism.” Militants who went to Syria and have now returned as ISIL loyalists are an increasing threat.

 

 “If even a few percent of those who have fought there enter the North Caucasian underground, this could have a significant effect,” especially since “now the leaders of militant groups are beginning to take an oath of allegiance to the ‘Islamic State’” and thus showing their willingness to engage in ever more radical actions.

 

Denis Sokolov of the Russian Academy of Economics and State Service agrees. The departure of “several thousand” North Caucasian militants to Syria led to the decline in violence; their return is likely to trigger more of it. And it is not clear whether pro-Moscow regimes in the region currently have the capacity to counter that.

 

In addition, he said, 2015 is likely to see a wave of protests in Russia as a whole, and at least some in the North Caucasus will take courage from that, especially if increasing budgetary stringencies lead Moscow to cut funding to the region. In that event, one could say, he suggests, that “the old institutional system has been destroyed, but a new one has not been created.”


Tatyana Lokshina of Human Rights Watch added that she views the attacks on Chechen institutions in early December and Ramzan Kadyrov’s harsh response, including his very public declarations about the destruction of the homes of relatives of militants, as pointing to a new and more dangerous future.


And she said her fears were reinforced by the recently concluded anti-terror operation in the Daghestan village of Vremenny. It lasted more than three months and was “unprecedented” in its cruelty, suggesting that the powers that be are ever less willing to use any but hard power resources to control the situation.


Finally, Sergey Nikitin of Amnesty International said that a series of recent court decisions, all of which went against North Caucasians and which are viewed by many as unjust, has broadened the circle of those who view the existing political system as wrong and may be more prepared to listen to those using violence to change it.

 

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